On Thursday, June 25 it will be hot, humid, with a low chance of rain and elevated smoke over Southeast Texas. A new Saharan dust cloud could reach Houston at the beginning of next week.
Houston will have a hazy sky this Thursday, June 25, due to a combination of elevated smoke from wildfires and Saharan dust particles that will continue affecting parts of Texas.
The smoke will arrive from Utah and Nevada and will remain mainly at altitudes above 10,000 feet, so the direct ground-level air quality impact could be limited. Still, the sky could appear hazy or less blue during part of the day.
The day will also be marked by heat and humidity. Temperatures will rise into the 90s Fahrenheit, with a heat index near 105 degrees. The probability of rain will stay near 0% on Thursday.
The smoke will be elevated over Southeast Texas
Thursday will begin with temperatures in the 70s Fahrenheit. Outside Houston, some areas could dip into the low 70s during the early morning hours.
After sunrise, low clouds could dissipate quickly. The sky will not be completely clear because a layer of elevated smoke will arrive from the north and spread over Southeast Texas.
That smoke will not be concentrated near the ground. Most of it will remain aloft in the upper atmosphere, which can change the appearance of the sky without necessarily causing a strong deterioration in air quality at ground level.
The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) projects that the daily PM2.5 index could reach moderate levels in parts of Houston and other areas of Southeast Texas. PM10 particles could also reach the lower end of the moderate quality range in the Houston area.
Heat, humidity and little relief from rain
The heat will continue through Thursday. High temperatures will be in the 90s Fahrenheit, with a heat index around 105 degrees.
That value would be near, but below, the criteria that typically trigger a heat advisory. The environment will remain humid, especially during the afternoon.
The probability of rain will be very low. The dry pattern will reduce the chance of showers during the day, while southerly winds will keep warm and humid air over the region.
During the weekend, southerly winds could increase slightly. Lows will stay near 80 degrees and highs in the mid-90s.
Sunday shows a limited chance of rain, with about a 20% chance of isolated showers.
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The Sahara dust will remain in the forecast
The Sahara dust has already spread to parts of Texas and will continue to influence the sky in the coming days.
A denser dust cloud is moving across the Caribbean and could reach Southeast Texas early next week. That new pulse would arrive after the elevated smoke affects the sky on Thursday.
Sahara dust typically travels thousands of miles from Africa to the Atlantic, the Caribbean, and the Gulf. In Houston, it can produce hazy skies, reduced visibility at times, and sunrises or sunsets with more intense tones.
It can also affect sensitive individuals when concentrations are higher. People with asthma, allergies or other respiratory conditions may notice irritation during periods of higher dust or smoke concentrations.
Air quality could be in the moderate range
The TCEQ projects that Thursday will have moderate levels of fine particles in several parts of Texas, including Houston.
The state forecast also indicates that Saharan dust will remain over two-thirds of eastern Texas. The more active winds could disperse some of those particles, but the atmosphere will still be conducive to the formation of fine particles in populated parts of the southeast state.
The residual smoke from fires in Nevada and Utah could also move toward eastern regions and the Texas coast, although most would remain aloft in the upper atmosphere.
The moderate air quality range does not mean that everyone will feel effects. Nuisances typically affect people with respiratory conditions, older adults, young children, or residents sensitive to changes in particles and ozone.
Rain could return in July
The dry pattern will not last the whole of next week. At the start of July, a change in the weather setup could allow showers to return to the Houston region.
Humidity would gradually increase and open the door to isolated afternoon rains. Temperatures would remain in the 90s, but rain could help clear some of the dust and suspended particles.
The coming weekend will remain mostly hot and humid, with southerly winds and a limited chance of rain through Sunday.
Forecast data for Houston
- Coldest day with the most haze: Thursday, June 25
- Origin of the smoke: fires in Utah and Nevada
- Main altitude of the smoke: over 10,000 feet above ground
- Maximum temperature: 90 degrees Fahrenheit low to mid
- Heat index: around 105 degrees
- Probability of rain on Thursday: around 0%
- Probability of rain on Sunday: around 20%
- Sahara dust: a denser cloud could reach early next week
- Air quality: fine particles in the moderate range in parts of Houston
The hazy sky could persist for several days in Houston. The pattern change projected for early July would increase the likelihood of showers and help reduce some of the suspended particles in the air.
