NOAA now forecasts between 7 and 13 named storms and a 75% chance of below-normal activity; the season runs through November 30.
Updated September 28, 2026.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season continues through November 30, but the observed activity and atmospheric conditions have led NOAA to reduce its forecast from what was published earlier in the summer.
The latest seasonal update assigns a 75% probability that the season will end below normal, up from 55% forecast in May.
NOAA now estimates between 7 and 13 named storms, of which between 2 and 6 could become hurricanes and up to two could reach Category 3 or higher.
The outlook covers the entire Atlantic and does not project how many storms will make landfall nor whether Houston will be affected. The risk to a location depends on the conditions and trajectory of each system as it develops.
NOAA lowered to 7–13 the projected number of named storms
The initial May outlook contemplated between 8 and 14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes and 1–3 major hurricanes.
The update issued on August 6 reduced those ranges:
| Activity | May Forecast | August Update |
|---|---|---|
| Named storms | 8–14 | 7–13 |
| Hurricanes | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| Major hurricanes | 1–3 | 0–2 |
| Season’s below-normal probability | 55% | 75% |
The updated NOAA outlook for the 2026 season attributes part of the expected decline to the El Niño conditions, which tend to increase wind shear and hinder tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic.
The Atlantic had recorded seven named storms by September 26
The tally from the National Hurricane Center showed seven named storms in the Atlantic through September 26: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, and Gonzalo.
None had reached hurricane strength by that date.
Accumulated activity remained well below the seasonal climatological average, though October and November still lie ahead before the official end.
As of September 28, the National Hurricane Center continued advisories on Tropical Depression Fay, located far from the Gulf and Texas. Conditions can change during the remainder of the season.
A less active season does not eliminate the risk for Houston
NOAA warns that a seasonal outlook cannot determine whether a particular city will be affected by a storm.
Tracks depend on weather patterns that are typically forecast with sufficient accuracy only when a cyclone is several days from possible landfall.
For this reason, a season with fewer storms across the Atlantic does not mean Houston or the Texas coast are free of risk.
The 2024 Hurricane Beryl showed how a single storm can cause extensive damage, flooding, and power outages in the Houston area.
Homeowners still dealing with damage from that disaster can consult updated information on the homeowners repair and reconstruction program for homes damaged by Beryl.
The Atlantic season ends on November 30
The official Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and will run through November 30, 2026.
August, September and October form the peak climatological period, so the end of September does not represent the end of tropical risk for the Gulf coast.
Residents can check active systems, tracks, advisories and formation outlooks directly at the National Hurricane Center.
Houston should monitor each storm separately
The seasonal outlook is useful for estimating Atlantic-wide activity, but it does not replace the specific forecasts for each cyclone.
When a system develops, the National Hurricane Center publishes information on track, intensity, wind probabilities and potential impacts.
The American Red Cross also recommends maintaining a family plan and adequate supplies to cope with outages of electricity, water, communications or transportation for several days.
The preparations may include water, non-perishable foods, medications, flashlights, batteries, important documents and a plan for pets or family members who require additional assistance.
The hurricane season will continue officially through November 30, regardless of whether the total number of storms ends up above or below current projections.
